Ryan Wilson: Do Penguins Play Better With Backup Goaltenders In Net? Do Penguins Play Better With Backup Goaltenders In Net?

See, that's the difference between what YOU do with advanced stats and what MOST writers do with advanced stats, which is pull stats to advance a predeveloped agenda.

Okay, there was that one time we argued about whether Crosby played a shutdown role last year, but otherwise you combine stats and watching the games, while others (especially those who do league-wide articles where you know they're not watching the majority of games for the teams they're talking about) do not. So it becomes a short cut.

I actually talked about advanced stats in a teacher seminar last week. I complained that we no longer evaluate teachers on the act and art of teaching, but instead tie accountability to test scores. Like stat mongers not watching games, but instead leaning on stats.

In both fields, it takes a combination of intuitive observation and measurables to make judgments.

Enjoyed the Roundtable. Thanks!

This is MAF's last year, unless he completely redeems himself. Griess will be the Pens Goalie of the near future, if not next season if MAF struggles.

Enjoyed the Roundtable. Thanks!
- madmike71

They are fun, it is always nice to see what some of the other guys think about things.

This is MAF's last year, unless he completely redeems himself. Griess will be the Pens Goalie of the near future, if not next season if MAF struggles.
- sammy87

I agree. MAF is gone after this year. I am very interested to see what team he goes to and how much money he gets offered.

MAF still stinks. I'll take a less acrobatic goalie that moves less all day. Remember less is more when ur in net. I think he got a fair chance on a good day for long enough. Bye bye movin on.

Is duper gonna be ready?

MAF still stinks. I'll take a less acrobatic goalie that moves less all day. Remember less is more when ur in net. I think he got a fair chance on a good day for long enough. Bye bye movin on.

Is duper gonna be ready?
- pensfan024

Griess will offer better #'s at 2/3 the cost after this yr. If a team offers Miller 6, I see MAF getting 4+ somewhere else.

Griess will offer better #'s at 2/3 the cost after this yr. If a team offers Miller 6, I see MAF getting 4+ somewhere else.
- sammy87

I wouldn't be surprised. I see the Caps, Wild, Sabres going after him.

I wouldn't be surprised. I see the Caps, Wild, Sabres going after him.
- JVR_42_PK81

Yeah or Peg, he will find a home somewhere. It sucks, Im a fan, and hes a super likeable personality, but it is a business.

MAF is a very average goalie in the NHL. Is this news? I thought everyone knew that already.

I always was a supporter of Fleury until Vokun came and played very solid with the same team that Fleury sucked with. It proved to me once and for all he is a nervous Nellie in net. Then he over thinks and overreacts to the play. The best goalies really move only when it's necessary. The last to react wins, generally.

I have been saying this for years and years about MAF. He is not an elite goalie. The Penguins win in spite of MAF not because of him. When you are drafted that high, you should be getting more not less. Too many soft goals and just plain ugly goals have plagued him and will continue to do so. I was criticized when Team Canada did not invite him to their camp for the Olympics. They did so because they did not TRUST him and probably never will. They can't afford to have him representing Canada on the big stage. I get criticized all the time about him but he just does not have the inner strength to be that kind of clutch goalie. He folds like a cheap suit and the SIEVE as he is affectionately known in Canada will NEVER be an Olympic or Stanley Cup goalie again Book it

Griess will offer better #'s at 2/3 the cost after this yr. If a team offers Miller 6, I see MAF getting 4+ somewhere else.
- sammy87

I agree. Big hopes for Greiss as the goalie of the future (at least til Jarry or Murray are ready). If he plays great this year I think Fleury is gone and Greiss will get a nice little raise...maybe $2.5M ? But still significant savings and much better value at the goalie position.

I can't deny MAF still occasionally struggles with confidence, but let's be honest, this team has also struggled MIGHTILY with sound team defense. When I go back and watch some of the games from the cup year, it was night and day different to how they played defense after Dan instituted his vaunted system.

I've always wondered how differently things would be for Fleury if he played for a team that approached preventing goals with equal desire as they did scoring them.

Blah blah blah. this is like having a blog everyday saying adams shouldnt dress next game. flowers our goalie this year and heres a word i hate but i will say it his "ceiling" is stanley cup quality goaltending.

I agree with the narrative that Fleury has been a slight disappointment for his career.

I think the Pens could get better goaltending for the same cost or about the same goaltending for a lot less.

But, for those with short memories, he won a Game 7 winner-take-all for the Cup vs Detroit, on the road. You cant have more pressure than that in the game of hockey. He was the main reason they won that game. Say all you want about him, in the game of his life, he played the game of his life.

You guys are tools sometimes when it comes to trying to give Fleury the shaft.

He's been, more or less, a disaster in the playoffs (after the cup win) until last year - without a doubt.
http://nambut.sportsblog....rc_andre_fleury_it_s.html

But his regular season numbers are fine.

Granted you want a goalie that gets it done in the playoffs...but aside from Vokoun...the Pens have not had anything but backups and it would have been unlikely those back-ups would have fared any better in the playoffs.

Plus...look at this...just for fun...and these were the first 3 teams I picked...and for no specific reason. So maybe it's not such a rarity, right?

LA KINGS
GP GS Min W L OTL EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
Jonathan Quick 49 49 2904 27 17 4 1 100 2.07 1183 1083 .916 6
Martin Jones 19 18 1095 12 6 0 1 33 1.81 500 467 .934 4
Ben Scrivens 19 15 975 7 5 4 1 32 1.97 464 432 .931 3

SJ SHARKS
GP GS Min W L OTL EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
Antti Niemi 64 64 3740 39 17 7 2 149 2.39 1705 1556 .913 4
Alex Stalock 24 18 1252 12 5 2 3 39 1.87 571 532 .932 2

ARIZONA
GP GS Min W L OTL EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
Mike Smith 62 61 3610 27 21 10 10 159 2.64 1871 1712 .915 3
Thomas Greiss 25 20 1312 10 8 5 2 50 2.29 626 576 .920 2
Mark Visentin 1 1 59 0 1 0 0 3 3.06 32 29 .906 0

Man an entire offseason of beating up Fleury. Can't wait for hockey to start. Fleury won a cup here say what you will about his performance or how it could have been anyone but you can't take it away from him. We will move on after this year and that's ok but geeze have a little respect for a guy who helped bring a parade to our city.

Hey Ryan, quick question on my part:

My thought was that teams normally play more defensively minded style of hockey when their back up is in. This means a more conservative approach that emphasizes positioning and eliminates risk taking in the defensive zone, which leads to fewer opportunities for break outs in order to reduce the quantity of good shots for the opponent. In short: more defense, less offense.

Could this offer an explanation for those FenClose numbers? My train of thought is that when the back up is in, our FenClose may be lower, but that's not because we're playing worse in our own zone, its because we're sacrificing our total of unblocked shots in order to reduce the number of unblocked shots taken by the apposing team.

Like lets say Flower is in so we play our usual hockey and the shots total up to 36 vs. 31. Then when Vokoun is in the shot totals end up being 27 vs. 26. Our FenClose numbers are worse but we are significantly reducing the amount of work our goalie has to do.

Does this make any sense, or am I totally off base here? I'm a mental midget when it comes to advanced stats.

Hey Ryan, quick question on my part:

My thought was that teams normally play more defensively minded style of hockey when their back up is in. This means a more conservative approach that emphasizes positioning and eliminates risk taking in the defensive zone, which leads to fewer opportunities for break outs in order to reduce the quantity of good shots for the opponent. In short: more defense, less offense.

Could this offer an explanation for those FenClose numbers? My train of thought is that when the back up is in, our FenClose may be lower, but that's not because we're playing worse in our own zone, its because we're sacrificing our total of unblocked shots in order to reduce the number of unblocked shots taken by the apposing team.

Like lets say Flower is in so we play our usual hockey and the shots total up to 36 vs. 31. Then when Vokoun is in the shot totals end up being 27 vs. 26. Our FenClose numbers are worse but we are significantly reducing the amount of work our goalie has to do.

Does this make any sense, or am I totally off base here? I'm a mental midget when it comes to advanced stats.
- Victoro311

I believe this is a valid point.

Man an entire offseason of beating up Fleury. Can't wait for hockey to start. Fleury won a cup here say what you will about his performance or how it could have been anyone but you can't take it away from him. We will move on after this year and that's ok but geeze have a little respect for a guy who helped bring a parade to our city.
- dbell646

No one is calling him names. We are discussing his actual worth. Most of us agree he is not a 5 million caliber goalie. he never really lived up to billing. The numbers don't lie. I think we develop an emotional attachment to a player and this blurs our ability to accurate assess his true value to the team.

Hey Ryan, quick question on my part:

My thought was that teams normally play more defensively minded style of hockey when their back up is in. This means a more conservative approach that emphasizes positioning and eliminates risk taking in the defensive zone, which leads to fewer opportunities for break outs in order to reduce the quantity of good shots for the opponent. In short: more defense, less offense.

Could this offer an explanation for those FenClose numbers? My train of thought is that when the back up is in, our FenClose may be lower, but that's not because we're playing worse in our own zone, its because we're sacrificing our total of unblocked shots in order to reduce the number of unblocked shots taken by the apposing team.

Like lets say Flower is in so we play our usual hockey and the shots total up to 36 vs. 31. Then when Vokoun is in the shot totals end up being 27 vs. 26. Our FenClose numbers are worse but we are significantly reducing the amount of work our goalie has to do.

Does this make any sense, or am I totally off base here? I'm a mental midget when it comes to advanced stats.
- Victoro311

I think that's definitely a possibility. Along with the backups usually getting the easier assignments while the starter plays against the "better" teams. So, yes, I think the backup's numbers may be inflated a bit.

But I've always thought that all you need is an average goaltender with a deep, talented team in front of him. I just don't see any reason to pay a goalie $5M who isn't elite. Some people think that he is above-average, but I think most of us would agree that Fleury is not "elite".

No one is calling him names. We are discussing his actual worth. Most of us agree he is not a 5 million caliber goalie. he never really lived up to billing. The numbers don't lie. I think we develop an emotional attachment to a player and this blurs our ability to accurate assess his true value to the team.
- powerhouse

+1

The fact that he was drafted number 1 overall, won a cup, and has a friendly personality is the majority of the reason most people seem to think he is worth $5M. If he was a 7th round draft pick that came in and had one really good postseason, won a cup, then almost single handedly was the reason we were eliminated for the playoffs for a couple seasons... I think most people would agree we could move on from him and the inflated salary.

Griess will offer better #'s at 2/3 the cost after this yr. If a team offers Miller 6, I see MAF getting 4+ somewhere else.
- sammy87

unless fluery bombs, he will get comparable numbers to miller in next years market.